A lot of different numbers flying around. The important ones:
Delegates: Obama: 838, Clinton: 834.
Obama won Illinois, Georgia, Alabama, Minnesota, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, Utah, Kansas, North Dakota, Idaho, Alaska and Missouri. 13 states.
Clinton won New York, California, Massachusetts, New Jersey, Arkansas, Oklahoma, Tennessee and Arizona. 8 states.
New Mexico remains too close to call.
The thing that should be kept in mind: Clinton, for the most part, eked out 50-something percent wins in many of her states — states in which she had 20+ percentage-point leads only two weeks ago. She barely held on.
Many of Obama’s wins were landslides (like here in Kansas, for example).
The math and the calendar, I honestly believe, benefits Obama. Clinton isn’t particularly strong in any of the coming states until Texas and Ohio in March — and if Obama sweeps every state between now and then, and continues to set records in fundraising, even those two states are in play.
Of course, I’m sure Clinton will get the lawyers out to validate the invalid wins in Michigan and Florida, which would be slimy and underhanded.
My suggestion, if I was advising Obama’s campaign: Start having Barack make public calls (in the name of inclusion and “every vote counts”) for the national party to go ahead and allow the states to hold genuine Florida and Michigan Democratic primaries in April. Give them a valid voice, instead of a legally-contested one.
The states were punished for moving their primaries up, but let them have legally-recognized primaries after everyone else is done. That way, the people of those states are heard, every candidate has equal access to them, and the important delegate counts can be tallied.
I’d have him start calling for that now, instead of letting Clinton try to back-door her way to an invalid victory.
Would Clinton’s push (mostly hypothetical at this point, but it wouldn’t be at all surprising) to validate Michigan and Florida be a legal “call the lawyers” thing, or would it be an internal “party rules” thing? If the latter, I suspect she’d have a better chance to succeed, as she’s closer to the party insiders than Obama.
(If I were Clinton, I’d probably push for it; as an undecided voter, I wouldn’t/won’t like it if she does.)
Clinton’s support in Austin has fallen through the floor. I can’t speak for the rest of Texas, but Obama’s likely to take Travis County. I’d also say he’s got a good chance in the more conservative cities like Dallas and Houston, because most of the Dems I know there had the Obama reservation of, “I just don’t think he can win,” and he’s clearly changing a lot of people’s minds on that.
Texas should be an interesting ride. Ron Paul may actually put up a decent showing on the Republican side, and the Dem side has the potential to be a real horse race.
And your suggestion for how Obama could counter that is very clever, by the way.
He’s also got to watch out for the super delegates. The Clintons are going to pull in every favor they can if it comes down to the party insiders.
Agreed, but then again a lot of those super delegates have been shifting as his momentum has increased. They are nothing if not savvy…. :)
Thanks. Now if only I could get hired on as a political consultant…. :)
South Texas is a problem, though. For whatever reason, it seems that the Latino vote is Clintons.
What’s interesting is, checking three different sources (MSNBC, CNN, and the Democratic Convention) yields three different sets of numbers. Some have Hillary still leading, others Obama, and none of the numbers match. Very strange.
I do like the idea of letting Michigan and Florida redo their primaries, though. Esp. if there’s enough time allowed for Obama to campaign there as well.
NBC doesn’t count superdelegates, CNN only includes pledged superdelegates. The Washington Post’s Fact Checker discusses the difference between AP and NBC figures:
“Most news organizations, including The Post, have been relying on the Associated Press for figures of earned or pledged delegates. These delegates are chosen proportionately in all states, according to rules that vary slightly from state to state. Some delegates are apportioned by congressional district, while other delegates are apportioned at the state level. The AP delegate count was still lagging behind probable pledged delegates as of Thursday evening.
The overall AP figures also include informal surveys of superdelegates, mainly members of Congress and other prominent Democratic Party officials, who are free to change their vote at any time.
Unlike the Associated Press, which counts elected delegates, NBC News is basing its figures on projected totals once all the votes are counted and all the delegates have been apportioned. In contrast to other news organizations, NBC has been showing a slight advantage for Obama in pledged delegates. The NBC count excludes superdelegates.”