A lot of different numbers flying around. The important ones:
Delegates: Obama: 838, Clinton: 834.
Obama won Illinois, Georgia, Alabama, Minnesota, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, Utah, Kansas, North Dakota, Idaho, Alaska and Missouri. 13 states.
Clinton won New York, California, Massachusetts, New Jersey, Arkansas, Oklahoma, Tennessee and Arizona. 8 states.
New Mexico remains too close to call.
The thing that should be kept in mind: Clinton, for the most part, eked out 50-something percent wins in many of her states — states in which she had 20+ percentage-point leads only two weeks ago. She barely held on.
Many of Obama’s wins were landslides (like here in Kansas, for example).
The math and the calendar, I honestly believe, benefits Obama. Clinton isn’t particularly strong in any of the coming states until Texas and Ohio in March — and if Obama sweeps every state between now and then, and continues to set records in fundraising, even those two states are in play.
Of course, I’m sure Clinton will get the lawyers out to validate the invalid wins in Michigan and Florida, which would be slimy and underhanded.
My suggestion, if I was advising Obama’s campaign: Start having Barack make public calls (in the name of inclusion and “every vote counts”) for the national party to go ahead and allow the states to hold genuine Florida and Michigan Democratic primaries in April. Give them a valid voice, instead of a legally-contested one.
The states were punished for moving their primaries up, but let them have legally-recognized primaries after everyone else is done. That way, the people of those states are heard, every candidate has equal access to them, and the important delegate counts can be tallied.
I’d have him start calling for that now, instead of letting Clinton try to back-door her way to an invalid victory.